盘点2010年奥巴马全球任务

美国在去年7月发起针对塔利班武装分子的军事行动，旨在夺回被后者用作补给输送路线的阿富汗南部赫尔曼德省。图为，一名美国海军陆战队士兵在战场上。
　　等着看吧，2010年的很多重要国际新闻都将以华盛顿为主角，这些新闻有时候会让其他国家懊恼，也会让一些美国人不快。
　　Expect many of the big headlines in world affairs in 2010 to be written by Washington -- sometimes to the chagrin of other nations, and some Americans, too.
　　美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)或许会在某些时候让部分美国人不满。他在国内有很多事还要办，11月份又要面临国会选举。国外的事情会让他心烦意乱，可能也就是心烦意乱一下而已。
　　Barack Obama may at times find himself among the latter. The president has a big domestic agenda still to tend and faces Congressional elections in November. Troubling distractions from abroad can be just that -- distractions.
　　但奥巴马和他的前任布什(George W. Bush)一样，今年或许会被各种重要的海外事务包围。以下是一些需要关注的重要领域：
　　Nonetheless, Mr. Obama, like George W. Bush before him, may find himself subsumed in important events overseas this year. Here's a survey of some of the biggest areas to watch:
　　反恐
　　Terror
　　人们会这样记起：圣诞节西北航空公司(Northwest Airlines)一架航班上遇到的袭击事件几近得手，只不过是因为偷运到飞机上的化学物质未能引爆才没有得逞。嫌犯是一位持有美国签证的尼日利亚人，他躲过了欧洲和美国的情报与安全保卫部门，差一点就杀害了近300名乘客。
　　The Christmas Day attack on a Northwest Airlines flight will be remembered as coming staggeringly close to success -- thwarted only by the failure of the chemicals smuggled on board to explode. The alleged terrorist, a Nigerian with a U.S. visa, overcame European and U.S. intelligence and security and nearly killed nearly 300 travelers.
　　跟踪、克服这种威胁的努力已经在积聚新的能量，舆论也有可能会助推这种努力。各国将在机场设立更多安检门，收紧飞行黑名单，并关注新的恐怖活动源头，如也门和索马里。最近有关西方国家、特别是美国的本土恐怖主义的新证据，可能会刺激这种决心进一步强化。
　　Efforts to track and overcome that threat are already gathering new energy, and public opinion is likely to fuel this effort. Nations will set new security at airports, tighten no-fly lists, and focus on new sources of extremist activity, such as Yemen and Somalia. Recent new evidence of homegrown extremism in Western nations, especially the U.S., is likely to fire this resolve.
　　阿富汗
　　Afghanistan
　　美国及其盟国面临着压力，要列出争战八年的成果。美国今年将增调三万多部队前往阿富汗，驻兵总规模由此将达到大约10万。英国、波兰、法国和韩国等盟国也已表态要增加它们的兵力。
　　The U.S. and its allies are under pressure to show results in the eight-year conflict. The U.S. is putting more than 30,000 additional troops into the theater this year, pushing its total contingent to about 100,000. Several allies -- the U.K., Poland, France and South Korea, among others -- have also said they will increase their commitments.
　　人们将继续激辩这种战略是否正确。如果调派一只规模小得多的作战部队，只管清除基地组织及其支持者，这样是不是一种更好的选择？
　　The full-throated debate over whether this is the right strategy will continue. Would the better option be to employ a much smaller fighting force focused just on uprooting al Qaeda and its sympathizers?
　　在不远的伊拉克，美国正在逐步削减驻兵水平。美国和其他国家厌烦了战争的选民们在想，为什么在阿富汗不是这样。
　　Not too far away, the U.S. is drawing down its troop levels in Iraq. War-weary electorates in the U.S. and many other nations are wondering why the same isn't the case in Afghanistan.
伊朗抗议者在去年12月下旬举行反对总统内贾德的示威活动。
　　伊朗
　　Iran
　　外交努力至关重要。伊朗不顾国际社会多个方面的劝告，继续推进它的核开发项目。美国和欧洲曾扬言要制裁，最后期限已过。然后又怎样？有效的制裁是什么样子的？有没有足够多的国家支持？
　　So much for diplomacy -- Iran has continued its nuclear-development program, despite entreaties from much of the international community. The U.S. and Europe have threatened sanctions, and the deadlines have passed. Now what? What does an effective sanctions program look like? Will enough nations support it?
　　而伊朗的边境上，漏洞繁多，也是实施制裁的一个障碍。全世界、甚至是在美国国内，还不知道有没有足够的执法力量来保证企业不和伊朗产生业务往来。
　　And Iran's porous borders pose a hurdle as well. It is unclear whether there is enough enforcement capability globally, or even in the U.S., to keep companies from doing business with Iran.
　　美国可能会等着看伊朗的内乱──一场得到了表达的异见运动──会不会改变伊朗的政治生态和美国的选择。
　　The U.S. may wait to see if Iran's own internal unrest -- a dissident movement that's found its voice -- changes Iran's political dynamic, and America's choices.
　　同样需要密切关注的是以色列。不久前，以色列派出演习轰炸机飞越地中海，飞行距离等同于以色列到伊朗的核设施。
　　Watching just as closely: Israel, which not long ago flew practice bombing missions out over the Mediterranean, about the same distance as it is from Israel to Iran's nuclear sites.
　　主权债务
　　Sovereign Debt
　　有主权债务问题的不只是希腊。各国经济恢复了增长，这是好消息，但给世界带来冲击的金融危机远未结束。
　　It isn't just Greece. Economies are growing again, which is good news, but the financial crisis that rocked the world is far from over.
　　通过注入强心针，世界经济活了下来，但各种刺激、救援政策留下的账还要还。而从亚洲到欧洲再到美国，各国财政状况都不好看。赤字正在膨胀，银行还在承受痛苦，失业率还很高，而在这一切之外，还有很多国家在繁荣时期累积的巨额主权债务。
　　A stiff shot of adrenaline to the heart kept the global economy pumping, but now all the bills for that stimulus and those bailouts are coming due. And the budget books -- from Asia to Europe to the U.S. -- aren't looking good. Deficits are soaring. Banks are still ailing. Unemployment is still high. And all this is on top of huge national debt that many nations amassed during the robust times.
　　日本，东欧，美元──即使情况出现好转，还是有很多厄运来袭的机会。
　　Japan, Eastern Europe, the U.S. dollar -- even as things get better, there's still plenty of opportunity for painful surprises

一名中国银行雇员在清点人民币。
　　中国
　　China
　　中国的增长提高了它的国际地位，而这个国家将来似乎也会愿意发出更多声音，特别是在指责美国在最近全球经济混乱时期的责任方面。今年两国关系或面临一些新的考验。
　　China's growth has given it new heft internationally, and the country seems ever more willing to flex its vocal chords, especially when blaming the U.S. for the recent period of global economic tumult. This year may bring some new tests to the relationship.
　　中国仍然是一个“自行车”经济体，正在想方设法地前进，以创造出足够的工作岗位，提供给每年涌入城市、追求更好生活的大量农村移民。执政者害怕动荡，而很少有什么比失业更能引起动荡。中国经济的成功，很大一部分靠的是与美国之间畅通的贸易往来，而现在贸易争端正在愈演愈烈。轮胎，钢管等等，名单还在变长。
　　China is still a bicycle economy, peddling hard to generate enough jobs for the crowds of rural migrants who each year seek a better life in the cities. The ruling politburo fears unrest, and few things stir unrest more than unemployment. A big chunk of China's economic success depends on clear channels of trade with the U.S., and now trade spats are on the rise. Tires, steel -- the list is growing.
　　如果美国的失业率居高不下，经济增长举步维艰，国会中初现苗头的保护主义或许会变得更加强烈。到目前为止，奥巴马政府没有宣布中国为汇率操纵国，虽然中国基本上是将人民币汇率盯住了美元。但2010年是一个选举年，在很多依赖制造业的州将展开激烈的角逐，美国政府的措辞和贸易政策有可能改变。
　　If unemployment in the U.S. remains high, and growth sluggish, watch nascent protectionism in Congress pick up steam. So far, the Obama administration has backed away from declaring China a currency manipulator, even though the country all but pegs its yuan to the dollar. But 2010 is an election year, with hot contests in many manufacturing states. The language, and the trade policy, could change.
　　全球监管
　　Global Regulation
　　部分地因为银行疯狂冒险而造成的经济危机，已经在20国集团中形成了新的紧迫感，它们要改变世界经济的运行方式，或至少要改变金融机构的监管方式。
　　The economic crisis, brought on in part by a familiar episode of Banks Gone Wild, fueled new urgency among the G-20 nations to revamp how the world does business -- or at least how financial institutions get regulated.
　　从高管薪酬，到证券自营交易，到银行的风险管理，一切都在等着检讨。到目前为止，说的比做的多。但这不是因为兴趣的缺乏。美国国会正忙着改革金融监管。等着看吧，2010年全球监管可能加强，或许会更好，或许会更坏。
　　Everything from executive pay to proprietary trading to how banks manage risk is on the table for review. So far, there's been more talk than action. But that's not for lack of interest. The U.S. Congress is busy on its financial regulatory revamp. Expect 2010 to bring more regulation globally -- for better or worse.