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zz人民币升值压力测试不乐观 升值3% 利润亏50%

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 楼主| hijackzhang 发表于 2010-4-5 15:21:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
多个行业人民币压力测试结果不乐观

  升值一个点,亏损一大片

  作者:记者 张莫 刘璐璐 雷敏/北京报道

  “若人民币在短期内升值3%,家电、汽车、手机等生产企业利润将下降30%至50%,
许多议价能力低的中小企业将面临亏损。”这是《经济参考报》记者日前从一些劳动密
集型行业商会的人民币压力测试结果中获悉的结果。

  测试结果显示,若人民币升值过快,企业将面临利润大幅下滑、甚至亏损的风险。
专家表示,在目前情况下,汇率的过快、过度升值,其最终结果很可能是不仅无法优化
结构,反倒导致结构问题积重难返。但另一方面,对压力测试的结果也需客观看待。

  聚焦 1 出口企业:升值3%,利润将下降30%至50%

  近期,有关部委牵头协会对劳动密集型行业进行人民币汇率压力测试一事,因正处
在这轮人民币该不该升值的争论中,而备受关注。据机电、轻工、纺织品进出口商会的
测试结果显示,人民币升值对于短期内的出口利润有较大影响,如若升值过快,行业利
润率在短期内将大幅下滑,部分行业面临亏损。

  据中国机电产品进出口商会测算,如人民币在短期内升值3%,家电、汽车、手机等
生产企业利润将下降30%至50%,许多议价能力低的中小企业将面临亏损。据中国纺织品
进出口商会测算,在其他生产要素成本和价格不变的情况下,人民币升值1个百分点,企
业利润就也减少1%。

  机电是我国出口产品中的大户,约占到出口总额的六成。中国机电产品进出口商会
会长张钰晶认为,我国行销在海外的50多种机电产品虽占有较大的国际市场份额,但因
核心技术缺失,产品竞争力较弱,高市场份额并未带来高利润以及较强定价权,所以一
旦人民币升值,将需要较长的时间来消化。

  此外,行业的测试结果显示劳动密集型行业利润率将受到严重影响,尤其是中小企
业居多的行业。记者从中国轻工工艺品进出口商会获悉,我国规模以上轻工企业出口利
润普遍在5%左右,而规模以下企业毛利率就2%左右。由于我国轻工行业进入门槛低、技
术含量低,议价能力弱,中小企业多,产能严重过剩,长期恶性竞争,汇率升值很难通
过提高价格转移成本,只能靠企业内部消化。以日用陶瓷为例:企业能承受的人民币升
值幅度约在1个百分点左右。如果升值幅度高于1个百分点,很多日用陶瓷企业(如年出口
规模低于10万美元)的经营就毫无利润可言。

  中国纺织品进出口商会的测试结果显示,目前我国纺织品服装企业的平均纯利润率
在3%至5%,有的企业利润低于3%。如果人民币升值,将压缩企业仅有的利润空间,降低
产品出口竞争力,将对我国纺织服装出口造成严重的打击。据企业测算,在其他生产要
素成本和价格不变的情况下,人民币升值1个百分点,企业利润也将减少1%。汇率方面带
来的损失是刚性亏损,无法通过与客户协商、改善供应链管理等方法消化。

  聚焦 2 过快升值无益于产业升级调整

  兴业银行经济学家鲁政委表示,有些观点认为汇率升值将有助于优化经济结构和产
业结构。然而,不少理论最大的缺陷就是没有“时间轴”,认为结构调整可在迅速的汇
率升值面前近乎无时差地完成。而实际情况则是,结构的改善需要较长时间才能完成。
汇率的过快、过度升值,其最终结果很可能是不仅无法优化结构,反倒导致结构问题积
重难返。

  机电商会的报告认为,如人民币汇率变动频繁,中小企业在利润很低的情况下,可
能更多地倾向于从事加工贸易赚取加工费,规避人民币汇率波动带来的损失,使加工贸
易占比逐步提高。同时,人民币升值后进口成本降低,我企业对加工贸易中的高端电子
器件进口需求将进一步增强,虽然可以暂时带动出口增长,但对行业长期发展、自主品
牌建设、技术创新和产业结构调整十分不利。

  商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员梅新育也说,我们的制造业面临继续“赶
超”与兼顾防止“被赶超”双重任务,即防止传统劳动密集型制造业迅速流失,让这些
制造环节在中国国内保持足够长的时间,带动中西部地区发展,为无法转换行业的中国
劳动者提供就业机会,让这些产业在国际分工体系下尽可能持久地为中国提供经济利益
,同时与韩国、日本、德国等新兴工业化国家和发达国家竞争先进制造业,为中国外贸
、整个中国经济开辟可持续发展的空间。而大幅度的汇率调整将重创我们。

  “传统劳动密集型出口产业由于利润微薄而难以承受人民币升值压力,这一点众所
周知;但按风险金额排行,由于建设和生产周期较长,电站、轮船、铁路、通讯等大型
成套设备出口企业的汇率风险敞口最为突出,某些企业2007、2008年汇兑损失相当于其
利润的30%至40%。”梅新育说。

  “汇率对产品售价所造成的巨大压力,已令企业无力像以前汇率稳定时期那样继续
快速提高工人工资了!……除非你认为现在其他部门的发展足以吸纳这部分因为找不到
能出得起他要的工资的劳动者,否则,我们就应对未来的升值幅度审慎加以考量!”鲁
政委说。

  聚焦 3 部分专家认为不宜过分夸大升值的影响

  不过,部分专家也表示,不能把压力测试的结果夸大和误读。中国社科院世界经济
与政治研究所国际金融研究室副主任张明表示,其所在团队的计算结果显示,中国出口
收入的价格弹性远低于收入弹性,这意味着决定中国出口强弱的主要因素是外需变动,
而非人民币汇率变动。中国的贸易结构中,加工贸易占据半壁江山。人民币升值在提高
了最终出口产品价格的同时,降低了进口的原材料和中间产品的成本,从而对企业利润
率的削弱是有限的。

  “即使是服装鞋帽等低附加值行业,在2006年至2008年人民币汇率升值期间,它们
在美国的市场份额也不降反增,这说明中国出口行业对人民币升值的调整能力可能被显
著低估了。”张明说。

  中国建设银行高级研究员赵庆明也表示,我国出口企业的定价权弱,但是并不代表
一点定价权没有。中国的出口企业有一定能力通过调整自己的商品价格来应对升值的影
响。

  另外,出口依存度较低、原材料进口依赖性更强的行业,还有可能从人民币升值中
受益。根据中金公司测算,如果人民币升值5%,石油加工和天然气生产行业、金属加工
行业、交通运输设备和金属采矿行业的成本分别降低2%、1.3%和1%。对于外汇敞口较多
的行业,如银行和保险业,也能从人民币升值中受益。中金公司认为,人民币升值有利
于这些行业增加估值并进行海外扩张。至于研发投入较高的行业,人民币升值将增强其
购买外国技术的能力。其中,最可能受惠的行业是交通运输设备、教育、电子设备、办
公设备和石油天然气勘探。
CHARLES170 发表于 2011-11-17 13:39:19 | 显示全部楼层

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