有关PER值的一些看法

zitong · 发表于 2010-5-15 09:50:47

John Hollinger，这个发明了PER的男人，这个在几个英文论坛里声名狼藉的他，四处兜售PER犹如金融衍生品一般令人厌恶，我在前2天才惊讶的发现这个臭名昭著的Hollinger在虎扑这个论坛里有着极高的人气和声誉，而且还有个亲切的外号“火灵哥”。。。亲爱的Hollinger，当你把2009年的湖人评为NBA历史十大总决赛球队之一的时候，我那什么来拯救你。。。

PER的定义：
"The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." - John Hollinger
（貌似Hollinger当初想拿PER来衡量一个球员的每分钟的Performance的 -_- OTZ 。。。当然了，效率也是performance之一）

计算公式：

PER的缺点
下面这一段英文总结的很详细了，除了一些大家熟知的缺点外（例如PER主要是拿来衡量球员的进攻端的performance的，一些“无形资产”是不能用数据来体现的，还有防守球员例如鲍三叔被低估，相对上场时间越少PER就越高。。。等等缺点），PER致命伤就在于：当一个球员投篮命中率高于30.4%和三分命中率高于20.4%，投篮投的越多，PER就越高。

Problems With PER

PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates -- blocks and steals -- can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006-07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.

"Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player's accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players such as Bruce Bowen and Trenton Hassell who are defensive specialists but don't get many blocks or steals."

Neither PER nor per-game statistics take into account such intangible elements as competitive drive, leadership, durability, conditioning, or hustle, largely because there is no real way to quantitatively measure these things, which are often based on opinion.

In addition, some have argued that PER gives undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes, or against a team's second unit, and it undervalues players who have enough diversity in their game to play starter's minutes.

Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA played does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."

Hand-checking对于PER的影响
除此之外，大家常常忽略的因素：PER只是把多个原始数据（得分、篮板等）经过处理后整合成一个数字，而这个数字的大小往往受到原数据的影响，而影响原始数据的因素有很多，其中有个因素影响较大：hand-checking在05年被联盟给扼杀了，这个对于球员和球队以及整个联盟的数据影响很大，原始数据会因为这个因素变动，PER自然也有变动（例如受hand-checking影响相对比较大的球员的PER在hand-checking取消后会有显著提升，例如Iverson、科比、LBJ、Wade等），所以比较不同时代的球员的时候PER也是不准确的。

小结：
PER在比较不同类型球员的时候极度失真（多功能型球员、组织型球员、防守型球员等的PER偏低）；在进行跨时空比较球员时也不准确；极度拉高了拥有无限开火权的球员的数值；
一句话：通过简单计算是不能拿来衡量和比较球员的performance和效率值的。

PER历史最高排名（前20名）：

Rank	Player	PER	Season	Tm
1.	Wilt Chamberlain*	31.84	1962-63	SFW
2.	Wilt Chamberlain*	31.76	1961-62	PHW
3.	Michael Jordan*	31.71	1987-88	CHI
4.	LeBron James	31.67	2008-09	CLE
5.	Wilt Chamberlain*	31.64	1963-64	SFW
6.	Michael Jordan*	31.63	1990-91	CHI
7.	Michael Jordan*	31.19	1989-90	CHI
8.	Michael Jordan*	31.14	1988-89	CHI
9.	LeBron James	31.10	2009-10	CLE
10.	David Robinson*	30.66	1993-94	SAS
11.	Shaquille O'Neal	30.65	1999-00	LAL
12.	Shaquille O'Neal	30.55	1998-99	LAL
13.	Dwyane Wade	30.36	2008-09	MIA
14.	Tracy McGrady	30.27	2002-03	ORL
15.	Shaquille O'Neal	30.23	2000-01	LAL
16.	Chris Paul	29.96	2008-09	NOH
17.	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	29.94	1971-72	MIL
18.	Michael Jordan*	29.78	1986-87	CHI
19.	Michael Jordan*	29.70	1992-93	CHI
20.	Shaquille O'Neal	29.68	2001-02	LAL

关于远古时代的球员的PER：由于73-74赛季之前盖帽和抢断没有统计，Hollinger把盖帽抢断数据直接归零忽略不计，导致远古时代球员的PER偏低，也就是说，如果把盖帽和抢断的数据算上，远古时代的球员例如张伯伦、天钩等人的PER将会远远高出现在这个榜单。

PER近代排名：
根据2009-10赛季的数据，LBJ的PER已经和乔丹最高的那个赛季并列了，以下是79-80赛季3分线启用~09-10赛季PER排行榜（前20名）：
Rk
Player
PER
Season
Tm
1
LeBron James
31.7
2008-09
CLE
2
Michael Jordan*
31.7
1987-88
CHI
3
Michael Jordan*
31.6
1990-91
CHI
4
Michael Jordan*
31.2
1989-90
CHI
5
LeBron James
31.1
2009-10
CLE
6
Michael Jordan*
31.1
1988-89
CHI
7
David Robinson*
30.7
1993-94
SAS
8
Shaquille O'Neal
30.6
1999-00
LAL
9
Shaquille O'Neal
30.5
1998-99
LAL
10
Dwyane Wade
30.4
2008-09
MIA
11
Tracy McGrady
30.3
2002-03
ORL
12
Shaquille O'Neal
30.2
2000-01
LAL
13
Chris Paul
30
2008-09
NOH
14
Michael Jordan*
29.8
1986-87
CHI
15
Michael Jordan*
29.7
1992-93
CHI
16
Shaquille O'Neal
29.7
2001-02
LAL
17
Shaquille O'Neal
29.5
2002-03
LAL
18
Kevin Garnett
29.4
2003-04
MIN
19
Michael Jordan*
29.4
1995-96
CHI
20
David Robinson*
29.4
1995-96
SAS

用PER来衡量和比较球队
PER用来衡量和比较球员不靠谱，但是拿来衡量球队相对靠谱，我以张伯伦大帅和指环王拉塞尔的队友的PER比较就可以看出来，大部分年代波士顿凯尔特人都是4个或者5个PER排名联盟前20的，有两个赛季例外，66-67年费城有3个人PER排名前20而且很靠前，结果球队夺冠了，68-69赛季湖人的超级三巨头的PER排名联盟前5位，而凯尔特人只有一个人的PER上了前20，硬件上湖人的PER占优，但是结果还是7场大战凯尔特人夺冠。。。可见PER用来衡量比较球队也只是相对靠谱，仅仅能作为参考，并不能作为预测球队胜利与否的重要数据。。Hollinger应该把forcast这个词从他的书名（Pro Basketball Forecast）里去掉才对。（赌球的时候如果用PER就囧了）
1957-58 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Bob Pettit*-STL 26.3
2. Dolph Schayes*-SYR 24.2
3. George Yardley*-DET 23.3
4. Bill Russell*-BOS 22.8
5. Cliff Hagan*-STL 22.6
6. Neil Johnston*-PHW 22.5
7. Clyde Lovellette*-CIN 22.2
8. Maurice Stokes*-CIN 20.6
9. Larry Foust-MNL 20.0
10. Harry Gallatin*-DET 19.8
11. Frank Ramsey*-BOS 19.5
12. Jack Twyman*-CIN 18.9
13. Vern Mikkelsen*-MNL 18.9
14. Bill Sharman*-BOS 18.8
15. Kenny Sears-NYK 18.5
16. Ed Macauley*-STL 18.4
17. Tom Gola*-PHW 18.3
18. Paul Arizin*-PHW 18.2
19. Bob Cousy*-BOS 17.9
20. Red Kerr-SYR

1958-59 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Bob Pettit*-STL 28.2
2. Elgin Baylor*-MNL 23.6
3. Cliff Hagan*-STL 22.7
4. Kenny Sears-NYK 22.6
5. Paul Arizin*-PHW 21.9
6. Jack Twyman*-CIN 21.3
7. Dolph Schayes*-SYR 21.0
8. Bill Russell*-BOS 20.7
9. George Yardley*-TOT 20.5
10. Bob Cousy*-BOS 19.9
11. Red Kerr-SYR 19.4
12. Richie Guerin-NYK 19.0
13. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 17.9
14. Tom Gola*-PHW 17.4
15. Phil Jordon-DET 16.8
16. Bill Sharman*-BOS 16.8
17. Willie Naulls-NYK 16.5
18. Dick McGuire*-DET 16.5
19. Larry Foust-MNL 16.1
20. Vern Mikkelsen*-MNL

1959-60 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHW 28.0
2. Elgin Baylor*-MNL 25.2
3. Bob Pettit*-STL 23.7
4. Clyde Lovellette*-STL 23.3
5. Cliff Hagan*-STL 22.0
6. Kenny Sears-NYK 21.8
7. Richie Guerin-NYK 21.4
8. Jack Twyman*-CIN 21.1
9. Dolph Schayes*-SYR 20.5
10. Bill Russell*-BOS 20.1
11. Willie Naulls-NYK 20.0
12. Bob Cousy*-BOS 18.7
13. Bill Sharman*-BOS 18.5
14. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 18.4
15. George Yardley*-SYR 18.2
16. Bailey Howell*-DET 18.1
17. Paul Arizin*-PHW 17.2
18. Red Kerr-SYR 15.7
19. Larry Costello-SYR 15.6
20. Gene Shue-DET

1960-61 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 28.2
2. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHW 27.8
3. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 25.9
4. Bob Pettit*-STL 25.2
5. Bailey Howell*-DET 21.2
6. Clyde Lovellette*-STL 20.5
7. Cliff Hagan*-STL 20.1
8. Jack Twyman*-CIN 19.6
9. Dolph Schayes*-SYR 19.2
10. Willie Naulls-NYK 19.1
11. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 18.4
12. Bill Russell*-BOS 18.1
13. Richie Guerin-NYK 17.8
14. Sam Jones*-BOS 17.7
15. Bob Cousy*-BOS 17.4
16. Larry Costello-SYR 17.2
17. Paul Arizin*-PHW 17.1
18. Dick Barnett-SYR 17.1
19. Walter Dukes-DET 16.3
20. Hal Greer*-SYR

1961-62 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHW 31.8
2. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 26.5
3. Walt Bellamy*-CHP 26.3
4. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 26.0
5. Bob Pettit*-STL 24.3
6. Jerry West*-LAL 22.6
7. Richie Guerin-NYK 20.9
8. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 20.0
9. Bill Russell*-BOS 19.4
10. Cliff Hagan*-STL 19.4
11. Bailey Howell*-DET 19.1
12. Bob Cousy*-BOS 18.3
13. Wayne Embry-CIN 17.9
14. Sam Jones*-BOS 17.9
15. Willie Naulls-NYK 17.7
16. Hal Greer*-SYR 17.5
17. Red Kerr-SYR 17.4
18. Jack Twyman*-CIN 16.7
19. Rudy LaRusso-LAL 16.6
20. Dave Gambee-SYR

1962-63 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-SFW 31.8
2. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 26.6
3. Bob Pettit*-STL 25.0
4. Walt Bellamy*-CHZ 24.9
5. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 24.6
6. Jerry West*-LAL 21.9
7. Bailey Howell*-DET 21.6
8. Terry Dischinger-CHZ 20.8
9. Sam Jones*-BOS 19.1
10. Johnny Green-NYK 19.0
11. Richie Guerin-NYK 18.8
12. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 18.8
13. Red Kerr-SYR 18.6
14. Bill Russell*-BOS 18.2
15. Wayne Embry-CIN 18.2
16. Jack Twyman*-CIN 17.8
17. Hal Greer*-SYR 17.3
18. Bob Cousy*-BOS 16.6
19. Dick Barnett-LAL 16.3
20. John Havlicek*-BOS 15.4

1963-64 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-SFW 31.6
2. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 27.6
3. Jerry West*-LAL 24.2
4. Bob Pettit*-STL 23.6
5. Walt Bellamy*-BAL 23.3
6. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 21.1
7. Bailey Howell*-DET 21.1
8. Terry Dischinger-BAL 19.6
9. Bill Russell*-BOS 19.3
10. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 18.9
11. Johnny Green-NYK 18.1
12. Hal Greer*-PHI 17.7
13. Sam Jones*-BOS 17.7
14. Red Kerr-PHI 17.1
15. Tom Heinsohn*-BOS 17.0
16. Cliff Hagan*-STL 16.9
17. Ray Scott-DET 16.9
18. John Havlicek*-BOS 16.9
19. Len Chappell-TOT 16.7
20. Gus Johnson-BAL 16.3

1964-65 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-TOT 28.6
2. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 26.7
3. Jerry West*-LAL 25.0
4. Walt Bellamy*-BAL 21.7
5. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 20.9
6. Sam Jones*-BOS 20.7
7. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 20.5
8. Bill Russell*-BOS 19.5
9. Bailey Howell*-BAL 18.9
10. Bob Boozer-NYK 17.8
11. Willis Reed*-NYK 17.8
12. Terry Dischinger-DET 17.7
13. Dave DeBusschere*-DET 17.4
14. Zelmo Beaty-STL 17.2
15. Gus Johnson-BAL 16.6
16. Nate Thurmond*-SFW 16.5
17. Hal Greer*-PHI 16.3
18. John Havlicek*-BOS 16.3
19. Rudy LaRusso-LAL 16.2
20. Lenny Wilkens*-STL 15.6

1965-66 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHI 28.3
2. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 25.2
3. Jerry West*-LAL 24.6
4. Sam Jones*-BOS 21.7
5. Rick Barry*-SFW 20.0
6. Walt Bellamy*-TOT 19.3
7. Bailey Howell*-BAL 19.0
8. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 18.8
9. Zelmo Beaty-STL 18.5
10. Dick Barnett-NYK 18.4
11. Bill Russell*-BOS 17.3
12. Ray Scott-DET 17.1
13. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 16.9
14. Guy Rodgers-SFW 16.9
15. John Havlicek*-BOS 16.7
16. Rudy LaRusso-LAL 16.4
17. Richie Guerin-STL 16.3
18. Lenny Wilkens*-STL 15.9
19. Hal Greer*-PHI 15.9
20. Billy Cunningham*-PHI 15.7

1966-67 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHI 26.5
2. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 25.5
3. Rick Barry*-SFW 24.2
4. Jerry West*-LAL 22.7
5. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 20.2
6. Willis Reed*-NYK 19.7
7. Bailey Howell*-BOS 19.5
8. Billy Cunningham*-PHI 19.3
9. John Havlicek*-BOS 19.2
10. Bill Russell*-BOS 18.6
11. Sam Jones*-BOS 18.5
12. Bob Boozer-CHI 18.4
13. Walt Bellamy*-NYK 18.4
14. Chet Walker-PHI 17.9
15. Guy Rodgers-CHI 17.9
16. Gus Johnson-BAL 17.6
17. Nate Thurmond*-SFW 17.4
18. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 16.9
19. Bill Bridges-STL 16.8
20. Dave Bing*-DET 16.5

1967-68 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Wilt Chamberlain*-PHI 24.7
2. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 24.6
3. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 21.0
4. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 19.8
5. Willis Reed*-NYK 19.5
6. Mahdi Abdul-Rahman-SEA 19.4
7. Zelmo Beaty-STL 19.3
8. Earl Monroe*-BAL 19.3
9. Walt Bellamy*-NYK 19.1
10. Lenny Wilkens*-STL 19.0
11. Nate Thurmond*-SFW 19.0
12. Bob Boozer-CHI 18.6
13. Billy Cunningham*-PHI 18.6
14. Dave Bing*-DET 18.5
15. Sam Jones*-BOS 18.3
16. Bailey Howell*-BOS 18.1
17. John Havlicek*-BOS 17.7
18. Rudy LaRusso-SFW 17.5
19. Bob Rule-SEA 17.4
20. Flynn Robinson-TOT 17.2

1968-69 NBA Expanded Leaders

Player Efficiency Rating

1. Jerry West*-LAL 22.3
2. Wilt Chamberlain*-LAL 21.9
3. Oscar Robertson*-CIN 21.8
4. Willis Reed*-NYK 21.4
5. Elgin Baylor*-LAL 20.7
6. Jerry Lucas*-CIN 20.6
7. Walt Frazier*-NYK 20.2
8. Bob Boozer-CHI 19.9
9. Bailey Howell*-BOS 19.4
10. Zelmo Beaty-ATL 19.1
11. Jeff Mullins-SFW 18.9
12. Elvin Hayes*-SDR 18.9
13. Billy Cunningham*-PHI 18.7
14. Lou Hudson-ATL 18.7
15. Flynn Robinson-TOT 18.6
16. Bob Rule-SEA 18.6
17. Nate Thurmond*-SFW 18.4
18. Earl Monroe*-BAL 18.4
19. Lenny Wilkens*-SEA 18.4
20. Wes Unseld*-BAL 18.
总结：PER只是把多个原始数据（得分、篮板等）经过处理后整合成一个数据，如果拿PER来衡量球员效率或performance（尤其是跨年代比较）是有失偏颇的，就算是拿来比较球队也能是勉强可以作为参考而已不能起到预测的效果（他还没把forecast这个词去掉？）。

zitong · 发表于 2010-5-16 16:12:19

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........轰炸过

叫我贵卓妹 · 发表于 2012-4-24 02:58:52

朋友不错，谢谢您的努力，顶了

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