时间: 2011-08-15 13:25 作者: 李世默 来源: 观察者网独家
摘要：上周，当中国媒体几乎一边倒地批判官方时，美国老牌严肃报纸《基督教科学箴言报》却刊登专文，冷眼打量中国的“意见领袖”与“媒体狂欢”，批判中国的知识分子是伪士大夫。
【编者按】《基督教科学箴言报》是美国老牌右翼严肃报纸。创刊于1908年，创办者玛丽·贝克·艾迪。由于曾受到媒体的伤害，她决心自己办一份公正的报纸。该报重视原创性和权威性，是美国白宫、国会领导人和高等学校、研究机构学者的必读之物。每周一到周五出版。值得中国人注意的是，在该报的国际版上几乎每天都能看到至少一篇对中国的报道。该报始终坚持深度、客观，避免人云亦云，在重大事件面前敢于发表冷静的声音，即使是大众一时不愿意听到的声音。比如在 “9·11”袭击事件发生之后不到一个星期，该报就深入采访了很多伊斯兰国家人士，报道他们对“9·11”的反应，提出“他们为什么恨我们”的问题。在当时美国举国上下群情激愤时刻，该报作出这样的举动需要极大勇气。事实证明，这样做最终促进了美国人的反思。上周，当中国媒体几乎一边倒地批判政府时，该报却刊登专文，冷眼打量中国的“意见领袖”与“媒体狂欢”。国内有媒体翻译了该文章的部分，观察者网获得作者授权，全文翻译供广大读者参考。让我们以平和心态聆听不同的声音。
全文：
最近中国发生了一次铁路行车事故，这次事故被一些知识分子说成是中国失败的标志。这些政治上持不同意见的人士借此警告说，经济的高速发展蕴含着风险。然而，这些网络意见领袖的呼声并不能代表中国民众的意愿，最多不过是表达了其个人的挫折感。
李世默 / 2011年8月9日
两列动车碰撞，40人丧生。惨烈的行车事故震惊全国，相关报道遍布报刊、电视和网络，引起国际媒体高度关注。
刹那之间，以高铁为最新标志的中国经济高增长一下子声名狼藉，民众躁动不安，整个政治体制遭到质疑。西方的评论家们再次报告发现了新大陆，即中国奇迹将被微博上不可遏制的力量打败。根据推测，至少再不会有人去搭乘列车了。
然而，现实又一次介入了。
京沪高铁在其运营的第一个月中共运载了525万旅客，这个数据无可置疑。至于上座率的数据，由于统计方法不一至今仍有很大争议，但即使最保守的估计也有半数上座。考虑到这是高铁大项目第一个月的试水，期间还发生了万众瞩目的重大事故，这个成绩可不算寒酸。在事故发生地附近的常规铁路上，各次列车一如既往地接近满座，这是对铁路项目最严苛的批评者也不得不承认的。
舆论与事实为何会相去万里？
少数人的声音看上去声势浩大。
过去十年来，互联网的迅速发展催生了数字化的公共空间，这里的汹涌气势在现实中十分罕见。在中国目前的4.8亿网民中，注重娱乐和交往的用户占了绝大多数，不过也有一小部分人在通过网络发泄对生活、社会和世界的不满，他们以最激烈的情感抨击最不满意的问题，声势也最为浩大。
由于互联网的特点，这些夸张的情感很容易被放大，以至于看上去竟然是主流。这一倾向的外在表现，就是通过片面、极端且不典型的角度曲解概念。因此丝毫不足为奇，最极端地鼓吹民粹主义和民族主义的言论，会在中国的网络公共空间里泛滥不已，任何偶入其中的访客都会惊诧莫名。
既然了解网络这个媒介的特点，人们就会了解其中的言论远远无法反映普通网民的意见，更遑论全体民众。理性客观地看，网络言论最多是公众意见的晴雨表，并且还不是最准确的，或者更糟糕，以至于干脆沦落为美国《外交政策》杂志最近所称的“谣言人民共和国”。
伪士大夫的挫折感
现在伪士大夫入场了。随着60年来中国奇迹般崛起，亿万普通中国民众迈入富裕生活，但有一个特殊的阶层却倍感失落。千百年来，通过精英式的科举考试选出的文人，或者说士大夫，一直支配着中华帝国的政治。士大夫出身于知识分子，但事实上成了控制庞大官僚机构的统治阶层。儒家思想认为士大夫仁义爱民，从而为这个阶层提供了道德权威。
一代代知识分子的功名追求和悲欢荣辱，在中国的政治史和文学史中历历可见。即使在中华帝国结束以后，中国的知识分子依旧无法摆脱士大夫的情结，后者此时表现为对政治权力的恋栈。在毛泽东时代，知识分子完全被边缘化，甚至饱受迫害。直到32年前邓小平的改革开始，知识分子才亲历了生活和自由的大大改善。
但是，现代中国是中国领导民众建立的。当前的政治和经济专家管理国家的能力即使并非毫无瑕疵，也是有目共睹的，而所谓知识分子却一无所用。根据中国历史上士大夫治国的悠久传统，知识分子自感在政治上应有其一席之地。但是这一愿望现实中落空了，因此尽管物质生活优裕，向来自命不凡的他们还是倍感窘迫，于是最后成了伪士大夫。
政治上碰壁后，近些年来许多伪知识分子进入了中国高度分散的媒体行业。在这里，他们遭遇的挫折更深，以媒体影响政治的尝试难以施展，还常常遭到中央政府政治权威的管制。当前中国政治体制的现实，就是如此。
饱经挫折之后，他们转而信奉西方的意识形态，相信媒体必须独立于政治权威，并且有责任监督国家权力。这一意识形态的改宗加上政治的失意，使他们逐渐自命为政权的反对派。偏激的网络舆论兴起后，他们发现这是一方沃土，并努力将网民的发泄解释成为民意的表达。
假想中的不满
类似场景我们已经不止一次地看到。对三峡大坝建造问题的不满，被解释成对工程本身的强烈反对；上海世博会被指责为不受市民欢迎的劳民伤财之举，其中一条证据是为世博会配套的地铁大项目施工引起混乱，令许多网民在网上抱怨不已；在地铁新线运营的前几个月中，空车厢的问题也被广为公布，以作为质疑的证据。
而今天每位乘客都会说，现在要挤上车可不容易。地铁曾经遭遇过的质疑，高铁现在也同样面临，深思一下上述回答，难道不是很有趣吗？
这些问题归根结蒂，是因为伪士大夫们力图在中国的政治现实中，为自己打出一方道德的藏身之地。因此，他们投身于网络的公共空间，试图造就中国的公共舆论。他们在报纸上写作，在微博上传播，构造了关于中国社会的另类镜像。由此，他们在现代中国的舆论中，重演了奥威尔在《1984》中所说的寓言。
他们的叙事是这样的：对近30年来经济的高速增长，中国民众普遍感到不满。大发展的益处抵不过相应过程中的代价，如社会分化和腐败等，正如一次事故击垮了整个高铁建设。最后，不论发生自然或人为的灾难，都被用来证明当前的政治体制已丧失了民众的信任。
既然如此，谁来代表民意推翻这个不义的体制呢？毫无疑问，这个使命最终要落到他们这些伪士大夫身上，而媒体必须当仁不让地领导这次革命。列车事故波澜未消之际，一位受人尊敬的评论家特别向英语世界的读者强调了这一点。
中国人还会坐火车，也支持增长
不过这个计划有两大缺陷。首先，中国民众不会受此蛊惑。一切对中国公众意见的可信调查，都证明了中国民众对一直以来的经济高速增长十分满意，对未来的乐观程度超过此前任何时期。伪士大夫们正强烈呼吁迅速降低GDP的增长速度，如果政府接受了他们的要求， 试问，中国民众会容忍吗？
其次，中国不会模仿西方的政治模式，让媒体成为独立的第四方。鲁伯特•默多克式的人物，永远不会在中国出现。中国政治正植根于自己的文化，沿着适合自己文化的政治道路发展。
中国政府与社会将深切悼念这次重大事故的遇难者，对其家属予以赔偿和慰问；政府必须彻底调查事故的原因，以消除隐患。而中国将继续发展。
笔者相信，在不久的将来中国高铁将运载亿万旅客，促进经济和社会的大发展，造福于民众，正如三峡大坝正为中国工业和千万家庭输送电力，正如为世博会建造的上海地铁正为两千万上海市民提供快速便捷的交通。
正如中国先贤所言：“夫君者舟也，人者水也。水可载舟，亦可覆舟。”水就是当前中国的民意，民意又是什么？试图理解中国并预测未来进程者，千万不要误判民意。而对中国最高决策者而言，误判甚至比漠视这些（虚拟空间的）嘈杂之音更危险。
李世默（Eric Li）是春秋综合研究院董事会主席、中欧国际工商学院校董。本译文为观察者网独家授权发布。
原文刊于2011年8月09日的《基督教科学箴言报》，网络版可见于：
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0809/China-s-critics-don-t-represent-the-voice-of-the-Chinese-people
附：英文原版
China’s critics don’t represent the voice of the Chinese people
China’s politically-stifled intelligentsia has painted the recent train accident as a symbol of the Communist Party’s failings, warning against the perils of rapid economic growth. But these Internet-wielding elite are venting personal frustration, not voicing the will of the Chinese people.
By Eric X. Li / August 9, 2011
Two trains collided and 40 people died. The transportation accident seems to be riveting the Chinese nation and dominating its newspaper pages, TV screens, and the Internet. It has claimed prominent spaces in leading international media outlets.
All of a sudden, the entire Chinese political system seems to be on trial, its economic development model – with the high-speed rail project its latest symbol – discredited; the Chinese people are in an uproar; and Western commentators are again pronouncing a sea change that this time, with the overwhelming force of microblogs, will finally begin to bring down the Chinese miracle. One would imagine, at the very least, the trains would be totally empty.
Yet again, reality is intervening.
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line finished its first month of operation having carried five and a quarter million passengers – a number not in dispute. The percentage of capacity number is very much in dispute because of differing statistical models, but even the most conservative interpretations would have the trains half full. This is not shabby for such a large-scale project in its first month, during which a much publicized fatal accident occurred. In the rest of the regular rail system, where the accident actually happened, even the fiercest critics of the railway project are admitting that the trains are nearly full as usual.
Where is the disconnect?
Loud minority voices
In the past decade, rapid growth of the Internet has created a digital public square, and its ferocity has become a unique phenomenon. While the vast majority of China’s 480 million netizens use the Internet for entertainment and commerce, a smaller group uses it to vent dissatisfaction about life, society, and the world. They express their most intense feelings about what they are most dissatisfied with in the loudest voices possible.
The nature of the Internet is such that these sentiments are amplified and assume a semblance of dominance. Its manifestation is by definition partial but not holistic, extreme but not representative. Little wonder that any casual visitor to the Chinese digital public square would find a China filled with the most extreme expressions of populism and nationalism.
Those who understand the nature of this medium would know that these expressions, while legitimate, are far from reflecting the general views of average netizens, much less the population at large. When put into an objective analytical framework, it is, at best, but one of the barometers of public opinion, and certainly not the most significant. At worst it is what Foreign Policy magazine has recently termed the “People’s Republic of Rumors.”
The frustration of the pseudo-literati
Now enter the pseudo-literati. China’s dramatic ascendancy in the last 60 years has brought prosperity to hundreds of millions of ordinary Chinese people, yet has left this particular group in a psychological vacuum. For centuries, the literati, or Shidafu, have dominated imperial China’s politics through the meritocratic Keju exam. They belonged to the intelligentsia but were effectively China’s ruling class through a vast bureaucracy. Their claim to moral authority was in accordance with the Confucian ideal that they ruled for the benefit of the people.
Much of China’s political and literary history had been written to reflect the triumphs and sufferings of generations after generations of aspiring and practicing literati. Ever since the fall of imperial China, the Chinese intelligentsia has never ceased to identify itself as the inheritors of the Shidafu mantle with a rightful claim to political power. During the Mao era they were kept completely on the sidelines and sometimes brutally repressed. Since Deng’s reform 32 years ago, they have seen their livelihoods improve and liberties expanded significantly.
But modern China was established by the Chinese masses, led by the Communist Party, and today is run by political and commercial technocrats who are pointedly not literati and whose competency, though not perfect, is rather obvious. This has left this self-identifying and self-selecting group of people in a most awkward place: They are members of the intelligentsia living comfortably but without political power to which they feel a special entitlement based on long historical tradition. They have become pseudo-literati.
Not being able to go into politics, many pseudo-literati have over the years gone to work in China’s highly fragmented media industry. In that, they found themselves even more frustrated. Their desire to influence politics is restrained and sometimes repressed by the political authority of the central government. Such is China’s political system.
In their frustration they have bought into the Western ideological notion that the media must be independent of political authority and has the moral responsibility to check the power of the state. Combining this ideological conversion with their feeling of lost entitlement to power, they have appointed themselves as the rightful opposition to Communist Party rule. And they have found the partiality and extremism of the digital public square their most fertile soil. They have sought to interpret the venting of dissatisfaction on the digital public square as representative of the will of the people.
The narrative of dissatisfaction isn’t real
We have indeed seen this movie many times before. The dissatisfaction expressed around the dislocations caused by the building of the Three Gorges Dam was interpreted as a strong general opposition to the dam project itself. The Shanghai World Expo was attacked as a wasteful project unwelcome by the residents of Shanghai. One of their pieces of evidence was the loud expression of dissatisfaction many netizens expressed online about the construction chaos caused by the building of the large-scale Shanghai subway as a part of the Expo. They widely publicized the empty trains during the initial months of the new subway lines’ operation as proof.
But of course, any rider today will tell you that now one would have to squeeze into these trains every day – an interesting replay of what is being said about the high-speed railways.
What is central to all this is that the pseudo-literati, in their effort to carve out a moral space for themselves in the Chinese political landscape, have taken the expressions in the digital public square and created an Orwellian 1984 of Chinese public opinion. They are writing in their newspapers and spreading through their microblogs a virtual and parallel reality of Chinese society.
The narrative goes like this: The Chinese people are generally dissatisfied with the rapid economic development of the last 30 years; the benefits of speedy development are not worth the costs of its byproducts, namely the wealth gap and corruption, just as an accident discredits the entire infrastructure undertaking of the high-speed rail project. Every disaster, whether natural or due to human error, is proof that the current political system has lost the trust of the people.
And who is to represent the will of the people to overturn all this injustice? Of course it’s them, and the media is somehow ordained to lead this revolution. The opinion piece in the immediate aftermath of the accident by a respected commentator essentially repeats this storyline for Westerners in English.
The Chinese people support growth and ride the train
There are only two problems with this plan. One, the Chinese people don’t seem to be in on it. Just about every credible public-opinion survey points to strong satisfaction of the Chinese people with the rapid economic development that has been taking place, and they look to the future with unprecedented optimism. The pseudo-literati are loudly demanding a dramatic slowdown in GDP growth. If the Communist Party acceded to their demand, would the Chinese people tolerate that?
Two, China is moving along a political trajectory that is uniquely suitable to its own cultural context and not following a Western model in which the media is an independent forth estate. China will never have its own Rupert Murdoch.
The victims of this terrible train accident will be properly mourned and their families fairly compensated with respect and dignity. The cause of the accident must be thoroughly investigated and prevented for the future. The country will move on.
This author predicts that, in a few years’ time, China’s high-speed railways will be transporting hundreds of millions of people and bringing enormous economic and social benefits to the Chinese people, just as the Three Gorges Dam is delivering much-needed electricity to tens of millions of ordinary families and Chinese industry, and the Shanghai subway built for the World Expo is providing efficiency and convenience to 20 million Shanghai residents.
There is an old Chinese saying: The people are like water and the ruler is a ship on that water; water can carry the ship, water can overturn the ship. Chinese vox populi – that is the water. What is the vox populi saying? Those who seek to understand China and predict its future course should not misjudge the people’s voice. For those who rule China, misreading that voice carries greater peril than not reading it at all.
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